Geopolitics and governance (Work Package 2)

The violent conflict hubs in the Middle East and Iraq, combined with the neo-authoritarian nature of Arab regimes are likely to create serious political challenges that have been until now rather unexplored in the literature. A trend of state failure in which the state does not fulfill its elementary security and development functions and a growing concentration of political capital among groups opposing incumbent regimes and external actors are two features likely to create unprecedented challenges. The aim of this work package is to provide an analysis of these two current trends while identifying at the same time the factors likely to give rise to them. Scenarios will be drawn in which these trends are likely to manifest themselves within specific country contexts. Wider implications for the sustainability of the state within the Mediterranean region will be extrapolated.

This work package is led by Dr. Nathalie Tocci from Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) an Italian research centre specialized in international relations.

Publications

Algeria’s Failed Transitions to a Sustainable Polity: Coming to yet another Crossroads
Date of publication: Friday, 28 October, 2011
Author(s): Hakim Darbouche
Algeria is so far the only country in North Africa not to have experienced sustained mass protests calling for political change. The government in Algiers has by no means remained indifferent to the groundbreaking events in neighbouring countries,...
Institution:

State (un)Sustainability in the Southern Mediterranean and Scenarios to 2030: The EU’s Response
Date of publication: Monday, 8 August, 2011
Author(s): Nathalie Tocci
In this first MEDPRO project Policy Paper, author Nathalie Tocci considers the concept of sustainability and how it is central to any understanding of Mediterranean politics. Too often confused with stability in policy debates in the Mediterranean...
Institution:
IAI
Syria and Lebanon: Diverging Paths of State Unsustainability
Date of publication: Thursday, 23 June, 2011
Author(s): Silvia Colombo
Any analysis of the prospects for stability and sustainability in the states of Syria and Lebanon reveals the strong ties that exist between these two countries and the impact of external influences on their overall development. Their trajectories,...
Institution:
IAI
Israel and Palestine and State (Un)Sustainability
Date of publication: Monday, 6 June, 2011
Author(s): Paolo Napolitano
This report explores the concept of state (un)sustainability in Israel and Palestine. The starting point sees conflict resolution as an independent variable for any change and progress in the area, in terms of a political, just and credible...
Institution:
IAI
Tunisia: Changes and Challenges of Political Transition
Date of publication: Monday, 23 May, 2011
Author(s): Maria Cristina Paciello
For 23 years, a combination of harsh repression and impressive socio-economic development in Tunisia ensured a certain level of stability of Ben Ali’s regime. However, on 14 January 2011, after several weeks of anti-government protests, the...
Institution:
IAI
Egypt: Changes and Challenges of Political Transition
Date of publication: Monday, 23 May, 2011
Author(s): Maria Cristina Paciello
Hosni Mubarak’s regime and its power system enjoyed remarkable stability for over 30 years. On 11 February 2011, however, after 18 days of mass protests, the Egyptian president was forced to step down, revealing the unsustainability of the...
Institution:
IAI
Morocco at the Crossroads: Seizing the Window of Opportunity for Sustainable Development
Date of publication: Thursday, 14 April, 2011
Author(s): Silvia Colombo
The question of state sustainability is highly relevant in the case of Morocco. The recent upheavals in the Maghreb and the Middle East, alongside the growing problems of poor education and high unemployment are likely to bring to the surface the...
Institution:
IAI
The Southern Mediterranean: Between Changes and Challenges to its Sustainability
Date of publication: Wednesday, 17 November, 2010
Author(s): Silvia Colombo
In this first Technical Paper, Silvia Colombo,  Istituto Affari Internazionali, IAI draws a critical distinction between short-term stability and long-term sustainability in the Mediterranean. Forecasts about the Mediterranean in terms of...
Institution:

IAI,
CEPS