Geopolitics and governance (Work Package 2)
The violent conflict hubs in the Middle East and Iraq, combined with the neo-authoritarian nature of Arab regimes are likely to create serious political challenges that have been until now rather unexplored in the literature. A trend of state failure in which the state does not fulfill its elementary security and development functions and a growing concentration of political capital among groups opposing incumbent regimes and external actors are two features likely to create unprecedented challenges. The aim of this work package is to provide an analysis of these two current trends while identifying at the same time the factors likely to give rise to them. Scenarios will be drawn in which these trends are likely to manifest themselves within specific country contexts. Wider implications for the sustainability of the state within the Mediterranean region will be extrapolated.
This work package is led by Dr. Nathalie Tocci from Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) an Italian research centre specialized in international relations.
