Scenario building and impact assessment (Work Package 8)

The partial foresight analysis undertaken in the previous work packages will be brought together under a common “roof” of analysis of different scenarios within an internationally consistent framework. To do so, all results of partial findings and scenarios will be used in a Computational General Equilibrium (CGE) Model under the GEM-E3 package developed within a multinational project partly funded by the 5th framework program and now being used by the European Commission and other national authorities. It is dynamic, recursive and driven by accumulation of capital and equipment, and allows for different representations of technological progress. It is based on backward looking expectations and its features such as the multiple sector coverage and the links between output and availability of natural resources will improve the state of the art analysis of the prospects of the MED-11 countries. In particular, MEDPRO will use the version of the GEM E3 package developed for the FP6 project CIRCE studying the impacts of climate change on the Mediterranean ecological and economic system.

This work package is led by Prof. Pantelis Capros from the E3M-Lab of the Institute of Communication and Computer Systems of the National Technical University of Athens (ICCS/NTUA) a research laboratory specialized in state of the art quantitative analysis.