Scenario building and impact assessment (Work Package 8)

The partial foresight analysis undertaken in the previous work packages will be brought together under a common “roof” of analysis of different scenarios within an internationally consistent framework. To do so, all results of partial findings and scenarios will be used in a Computational General Equilibrium (CGE) Model under the GEM-E3 package developed within a multinational project partly funded by the 5th framework program and now being used by the European Commission and other national authorities. It is dynamic, recursive and driven by accumulation of capital and equipment, and allows for different representations of technological progress. It is based on backward looking expectations and its features such as the multiple sector coverage and the links between output and availability of natural resources will improve the state of the art analysis of the prospects of the MED-11 countries. In particular, MEDPRO will use the version of the GEM E3 package developed for the FP6 project CIRCE studying the impacts of climate change on the Mediterranean ecological and economic system.

This work package is led by Prof. Pantelis Capros from the E3M-Lab of the Institute of Communication and Computer Systems of the National Technical University of Athens (ICCS/NTUA) a research laboratory specialized in state of the art quantitative analysis.


Macroeconomic Scenarios for the Euro-Mediterranean Area: Quantification based on the GEM-E3 model
Date of publication: Tuesday, 23 July, 2013
This study quantifies four alternative macroeconomic scenarios for the southern and eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMCs), with the use of GEM-E3, a general equilibrium model. The four scenarios are: i) the continuation of current policies, ii)...
Quantitative Reference Scenario for the MEDPRO Project
Date of publication: Thursday, 30 May, 2013
In general equilibrium models the reference scenario is important, as the evaluation of the alternative policies modelled is based on their deviation from the reference scenario. The reference scenario relates to the development of an economic...
Economic and Structural Database for the MEDPRO Project
Date of publication: Wednesday, 29 May, 2013
This report presents the economic and structural database compiled for the MEDPRO project. The database includes governance, infrastructure, finance, environment, energy, agricultural data and development indicators for the 11 southern and eastern...