MEDiterranean PROspects

Micro-, small- and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean suffer from credit constraints. Given their contribution to employment and growth, similarly as in other regions, policy-makers have developed credit guarantee schemes (CGSs) in order to facilitate small companies’ access to debt capital. CGSs are risk-sharing mechanisms under which a guarantor ensures the lender against a share of the possible losses it incurs when extending a loan.

The 2011 uprisings in the southern and eastern Mediterranean have put the region at the forefront of current policy developments, calling into question the future of their domestic political systems and the future of the EU partnership with its Southern Neighbourhood. Against this backdrop, this paper analyses and assesses the EU’s development assistance to the region since 1995 and provides insights into the future of the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership.

This paper aims at devising scenarios for the development of the financial system in the southern and eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMCs), for the 2030 horizon. The results of the simulations indicate that bank credit to the private sector, meta-efficiency and stock market turnover could reach at best 108%, 78% and 121%, respectively, if the SEMCs adopt the best practices in Europe. These scenarios are much higher than those of the present levels in the region but still lower than the best performers in Europe.

This study aims at assessing the socio-economic and environmental effects of different societal and human development scenarios and climate change in the water-scarce southern and eastern Mediterranean. The study develops a two-stage modelling methodology that includes an econometric analysis for the southern and eastern Mediterranean region as a whole and a detailed, integrated socio-ecological assessment focusing on Jordan, Syria and Morocco. The results show that water resources will be under increasing stress in future years.

This analysis of regulatory convergence shows that substantial improvements have been made in the southern and eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMCs), yet they still suffer from key weaknesses in deposit insurance, entry obstacles, political interference and the strength of legal rights. In particular, deposit insurance systems in many SEMCs are not explicit, which could lead to uncertainties in the provision of support to banks in case of default.

Against a background of decades of regulatory reforms aimed at fostering integration, promoting competition, efficiency and productivity growth in the financial industry, both in developed and developing countries, in this MEDPRO Technical Report the authors seek to assess the outcomes of these reform processes on the dynamics of bank efficiency – via the estimation of stochastic meta-frontiers – and convergence for a large sample of countries over the period 1997-2010.

This MEDPRO Technical Report explores the relationship between financial sector development and economic growth, using a sample of northern and southern Mediterranean countries for the years 1985-2009. The authors included several variables to measure the development of the financial sector to account both for quantity and quality effects. The results indicate that credit to the private sector and bank deposits are negatively associated with growth, which confirms deficiencies in credit allocation in the region and suggests weak financial regulation and supervision.

Casual observation shows that that the financial systems in the southern and eastern Mediterranean are unable (or unwilling) to divert the financial resources that are available to them as funding opportunities to private enterprises. Using a sample of northern and southern Mediterranean countries for the years 1985 to 2009, this study empirically assesses the reasons underlying such conditions.

This report analyses the potential economic impacts of climate change on 11 southern and eastern Mediterranean countries through the effects of changes on the coastal ecosystem and on agriculture. The impacts are quantified through bottom-up studies assessing the consequences of the deterioration of the coastal ecosystem and protected areas for tourism arrivals, and the effects on yields of major crop families by mid-century. These data are then used as inputs into a world CGE model that quantifies the impact on GDP, sectoral production and prices.

This report aims to identify, explain and detail the links and interactions in Southern Mediterranean Countries (SMCs) between energy supply and demand and socio-economic development, as well as the potential role of energy supply and demand policies on both. Another related aim is to identify and analyse, in a quantitative and qualitative way, the changing role of energy (both demand and supply) in southern Mediterranean economies, focusing on its positive and negative impact on socio-economic development.

This report investigates: