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Macroeconomic Scenarios for the Euro-Mediterranean Area: Quantification based on the GEM-E3 model

This study quantifies four alternative macroeconomic scenarios for the southern and eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMCs), with the use of GEM-E3, a general equilibrium model. The four scenarios are: i) the continuation of current policies, ii) southern Mediterranean–EU cooperation, iii) a global opening of the southern Mediterranean countries and cooperation with the rest of the Middle East and other developing countries like China, and iv) a deterioration in the regional political climate and a failure of cooperation.

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MEDPRO Rep No 7 WP8 Paroussos.pdf1.75 MB44862 days 3 hours ago
Date of publication: 
Tue, 23/07/2013
Author(s): 
Leonidas Paroussos, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Ioannis Charalampidis, Stella Tsani and Pantelis Capros
Institutions: E3M Lab at ICCS/NTUA

Scenarios Assessment and Transitions towards a Sustainable Euro-Mediterranean in 2030

In the aftermath of the 2011 Arab uprisings in the southern and eastern Mediterranean, the region has reached a turning point in its history, presenting as many opportunities as challenges. The European Union itself is facing challenging conditions following the financial and economic crises that have hit its periphery. This MEDPRO Policy Paper examines and assesses various possible scenarios that could play out in EU-Mediterranean relations over the next two decades and offers recommendations towards sustainable socio-economic development in the region.

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MEDPRO PP No 9 WP9 Ayadi and Sessa.pdf915.72 KB453412 weeks 5 days ago
Date of publication: 
Tue, 23/07/2013
Author(s): 
Rym Ayadi and Carlo Sessa
Institutions: CEPS, ISIS

Quantitative Reference Scenario for the MEDPRO Project

In general equilibrium models the reference scenario is important, as the evaluation of the alternative policies modelled is based on their deviation from the reference scenario. The reference scenario relates to the development of an economic outlook for each region and sector of the model. This means that assumptions are made about the main drivers of growth, e.g. population growth and technical progress. This report provides the main assumptions used for the development of the reference scenario in the MEDPRO project.

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MEDPRO Rep No 6 WP8 Paroussos.pdf1.36 MB36191 day 22 hours ago
Date of publication: 
Thu, 30/05/2013
Author(s): 
Leonidas Paroussos, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Ioannis Charalampidis, Stella Tsani and Pantelis Capros
Institutions: E3M Lab at ICCS/NTUA

Economic and Structural Database for the MEDPRO Project

This report presents the economic and structural database compiled for the MEDPRO project. The database includes governance, infrastructure, finance, environment, energy, agricultural data and development indicators for the 11 southern and eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMCs) studied in the MEDPRO project. The report further details the data and the methods used for the construction of social accounting, bilateral trade, consumption and investment matrices for each of the SEMCs.

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MEDPRO Rep No 5 WP8 Paroussos.pdf2.01 MB36631 year 6 weeks ago
MEDPRO Rep No 5 WP8 Macro economic and structural database.xlsx562.07 KB13461 year 8 weeks ago
Date of publication: 
Wed, 29/05/2013
Author(s): 
Leonidas Paroussos, Stella Tsani and Zoi Vrontisi
Institutions: E3M Lab at ICCS/NTUA

Access by MSMEs to Finance in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean: What role for credit guarantee schemes?

Micro-, small- and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean suffer from credit constraints. Given their contribution to employment and growth, similarly as in other regions, policy-makers have developed credit guarantee schemes (CGSs) in order to facilitate small companies’ access to debt capital. CGSs are risk-sharing mechanisms under which a guarantor ensures the lender against a share of the possible losses it incurs when extending a loan.

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MEDPRO TR No 35 WP6 Ayadi.pdf2.13 MB49021 day 23 hours ago
Date of publication: 
Tue, 30/04/2013
Author(s): 
Rym Ayadi, Salim Gadi
Institutions: CEPS

The Euro-Mediterranean Partnership and Development Assistance: Past Trends and Future Scenarios

The 2011 uprisings in the southern and eastern Mediterranean have put the region at the forefront of current policy developments, calling into question the future of their domestic political systems and the future of the EU partnership with its Southern Neighbourhood. Against this backdrop, this paper analyses and assesses the EU’s development assistance to the region since 1995 and provides insights into the future of the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership.

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MEDPRO TR No 32 WP9 Ayadi.pdf2.98 MB33741 year 7 weeks ago
Date of publication: 
Tue, 09/04/2013
Author(s): 
Rym Ayadi and Salim Gadi
Institutions: CEPS

Financial Sector Development and Integration in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean: Towards a long-term sustainable transition

This MEDPRO Policy Paper examines the trends and prospects in financial-sector development and integration in the southern and eastern Mediterranean countries and concludes with an agenda for a long-term sustainable transition where finance turns to be a positive stimulus to long-term growth.

Rym Ayadi is Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) in Brussels and Coordinator of the MEDPRO project.

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MEDPRO PP No 7 WP6 Ayadi.pdf429.87 KB26791 year 7 weeks ago
Date of publication: 
Tue, 09/04/2013
Author(s): 
Rym Ayadi
Institutions: CEPS

Human Capital, Inequality and Migration in Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries: Towards a coherent policy agenda

The demographic and societal structures in southern and eastern Mediterranean countries are expected to undergo profound transformations in the future, calling for new public policies related to employment, human capital and mobility. In addition, the population projections of the MEDPRO project until 2030 have pointed to an increase in working-age populations. Against this background, the authors suggest policies to address challenges in education, inequality, social protection and migration.

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MEDPRO PP No 8 WP7 Ayadi.pdf437.28 KB31082 days 41 min ago
Date of publication: 
Wed, 27/03/2013
Author(s): 
Rym Ayadi and Alia el Mahdi
Institutions: CEPS, FEPS

Benchmarking the Financial Sector in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries and Projecting 2030 Financial Sector Scenarios

This paper aims at devising scenarios for the development of the financial system in the southern and eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMCs), for the 2030 horizon. The results of the simulations indicate that bank credit to the private sector, meta-efficiency and stock market turnover could reach at best 108%, 78% and 121%, respectively, if the SEMCs adopt the best practices in Europe. These scenarios are much higher than those of the present levels in the region but still lower than the best performers in Europe.

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MEDPRO TR No 31 WP6 Ayadi.pdf374.6 KB35191 week 19 hours ago
Date of publication: 
Fri, 22/03/2013
Author(s): 
Rym Ayadi, Emrah Arbak, Sami Ben-Naceur, Willem Pieter De Groen
Institutions: CEPS, FEMISE

Perspectives in Resource Management and Climate Change Adaptation in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean

This policy paper focuses on the sustainable management of some key natural resources in southern and eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMCs) under climate change and anthropogenic pressures. In a business-as-usual and even more so in a failed cooperation scenario, water resources, ecosystems and biodiversity in the region are under stress, with negative consequences for agriculture, food security, tourism and development. However, proper adaptation strategies are shown to be effective in reconciling resource conservation with GDP, trade and population growth.

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MEDPRO PP No 6 WP4a Bosello.pdf282.24 KB27271 year 6 weeks ago
Date of publication: 
Fri, 22/03/2013
Author(s): 
Francesco Bosello, Nicola Lamaddalena, Daniel Osberghaus, Consuelo Varela Ortega
Institutions: FEEM, MAIB, ZEW, UPM