MEDiterranean PROspects

Adaptation to climate change in southern and eastern Mediterranean countries is particularly relevant because of the strong expected effects on the region and the sensitivity of important sectors like agriculture and tourism to climate change. This work analyses qualitative scenarios with the support of insights from the theoretical literature and information collected from case studies about Tunisia, Egypt and Turkey. We deal with several dimensions of adaptation, including the role of the government, equity, uncertainty and linkages with mitigation.

This paper establishes and measures key biodiversity and ecosystem health indicators and the number of world heritage sites in coastal areas at global level. It then estimates – econometrically – the indicators’ influence on the provision of tourism values through the marine ecosystem function as a harbour of biodiversity, and as a provider of amenity values and marine cultural identity. The report then focuses on the MEDPRO region, providing some estimates of the potential impact of climate change on these services for a given temperature increase scenario.

This report assesses the current status of the education and social protection systems in 11 southern and eastern Mediterranean countries. It compares these countries using various education indicators and attempts to highlight the main differences in the social protection systems among the countries using qualitative analysis.

The aim of this technical report is to quantify alternative energy demand and supply scenarios for ten southern and eastern Mediterranean countries up to 2030.

The report presents the model-based results of four alternative scenarios that are broadly in line with the MEDPRO scenario specifications on regional integration and cooperation with the EU. The report analyses the main implications of the scenarios in the following areas:

This paper has two objectives. First, it attempts to establish the potential of policies on energy efficiency and energy demand-side management in the southern Mediterranean region. Second, by examining past trends in energy intensity and trends up to 2030, it analyses the prospects and costs of such policies, compared with expected developments in the price of energy resources.

This paper investigates the relationship between female labour force participation rates and economic growth in southern Mediterranean countries. A two-step methodology involving econometric estimations and the use of a general equilibrium model was used for this purpose.

This paper addresses the issues of current levels of inequality: their trends, determinants and future scenarios, demonstrating that welfare levels are measured by per capita consumption. Location, educational attainment and employment status have been identified as the key factors affecting levels of welfare and its distribution. A benefit incidence analysis was performed to investigate benefits of different deciles of per capita expenditure from education and health services.

The aim of this report is to elaborate the MEDPRO Energy Reference Scenario for oil and gas supply and demand up to 2030 for southern and eastern Mediterranean countries. The report gives an assessment of

- oil and gas reserves by country;
- oil and gas production, domestic demand and export scenarios by country; and
- the existing and planned infrastructure for oil and gas exports.

Finally, the report presents some insights on the future role of the Mediterranean as an oil and gas transit region.

Measuring human capital has been a significant challenge for economists because the main variable of interest is intangible and not directly observable. In the Middle Eastern and Northern African region the task is further complicated by the general scarcity of comparable and reliable data.

The aim of this report is to elaborate the MEDPRO Energy Reference Scenario for electricity demand and power generation (by energy source) in the southern and eastern part of the Mediterranean (MED-11 countries) up to 2030. The report assesses: