MEDiterranean PROspects

The aim of this report is to elaborate the MEDPRO Energy Reference Scenario for oil and gas supply and demand up to 2030 for southern and eastern Mediterranean countries. The report gives an assessment of

- oil and gas reserves by country;
- oil and gas production, domestic demand and export scenarios by country; and
- the existing and planned infrastructure for oil and gas exports.

Finally, the report presents some insights on the future role of the Mediterranean as an oil and gas transit region.

Measuring human capital has been a significant challenge for economists because the main variable of interest is intangible and not directly observable. In the Middle Eastern and Northern African region the task is further complicated by the general scarcity of comparable and reliable data.

The aim of this report is to elaborate the MEDPRO Energy Reference Scenario for electricity demand and power generation (by energy source) in the southern and eastern part of the Mediterranean (MED-11 countries) up to 2030. The report assesses:

This MEDPRO project report describes four population growth scenarios for 11 countries in the Mediterranean region, using the MEDPRO economic-political development framework to consider how indicators of fertility, mortality, and international migration might change if people in these countries were to live in different macro-economic and political contexts. The paper also reflects on the results obtained in light of recent political developments in the region.

The outbreak of the Arab Spring and the unrest, revolution and war that followed during the course of 2011 have forced the EU to acknowledge the need to radically re-think its policy approach towards the Southern Mediterranean, including in the domain of migration.

More than a year has passed since the start of the political uprising against the authoritarian regimes in the Arab world. But, as demonstrated by the ongoing unrest in Syria, the process is far from over.

This paper investigates the evolution and determinants of manufactured exports and foreign direct investment (FDI) in 11 southern Mediterranean countries over the period 1985–2009 as well as their prospects under different scenarios pertaining to the development of the determinants. The econometric analysis confirms the role of exchange rate depreciation, the openness of the economy and the quality of institutions and infrastructure in fostering manufactured exports and FDI inflows in the region.

This MEDPRO Technical Report shows that the monetary and exchange rate policies conducted by central banks in the South Mediterranean region display apparent homogeneity in their operational frameworks, albeit with some specificities and differing degrees of advancement.

This research develops a quantitative analysis aimed at simulating the trade effects of various integration scenarios between the EU and its Mediterranean Partners (MPs). Results for shallow integration show that the completion of tariff removal is expected to produce limited gains, except in Algeria. However, further steps toward deep integration would lead to much more significant gains. In this regard, the elimination of non-tariff barriers is expected to increase EU exports to MPs up to 60%.

This MEDPRO Technical Report confirms the importance of commercial openness and macroeconomic performance (i.e. the control of inflation and stability of current account balance and exchange rate) on growth dynamics in the south Mediterranean countries. In particular, the positive impact of capital account liberalisation is conditioned by the imperative reinforcement of institutional quality, country risk reduction, and government stability.